Some days back, we were discussing this interesting concept in class, called "Limits To Growth". It was originally put forward in a book with the same title by the Club of Rome in 1972.

In the beginning, the book was viewed as very pessimistic in nature because of it's central argument – at the current exponential growth rate of population and thereby, economic growth, a time will come in the future when we'll be left with few or no resources to use, ensuing in starvation deaths and culminating in a human ecological disaster – take note of this, better slow down and use your resources with moderation.

Apparently, when it was first released, it was given a look and conveniently relegated to an obscure corner in the bookshelf. Nobody was probably ready to accept the idea of slowing down so that something which might happen in the future may be averted. But looking at the gigantic population increase in the last few decades and the rapid economic growth, it does feel that we might come to a stage when we may no longer have resources waiting for us, to be tapped – because the earth simply does not hold infinite resources. Sooner or later, we're going to run out of resources.

It goes something like this:

Decrease in death rate -> Population grows and exceeds resource base -> Requirement of new technologies -> Technological development -> New resources found -> Full utilisation of resources -> Excessive exploitation -> Human ecological disaster.

So, the book says, governments of world nations should include in their policies, a way of judicial use of resources with a careful eye on the future. One must note that, the concept does not ask people to stop or drastically reduce using resources but to use them judicially.

Trends and world models

Along with growth in population, we did experience a rapid growth in technology. But population growth has always exceeded growth rates in technology, development and resources. It must be noted that resources are discovered and tapped only when they are needed. Nobody was crazy about oil before the Internal Combustion Engine was invented. The IC Engine was a product of technological development, which means new resources are found following new technological developments.

If that is so, then why should we worry about resources getting exhausted in the future? After all, we're seeing immense growth in technological development, arent we? Well, yes. This is a favourite argument put forward by critics. But remember, the earth has finite resources. Technological development also means better lives and a natural increase in population. This population increase will always make the new resources small and they'll run out too. If we dont control the use of these resources, we might run out of them till a newer resource is discovered. If the newer resource is not discovered or not discovered soon, then… doom! You have what they call a human ecological disaster there.

Five standard world models have been developed to depict possible future scenarios:

1. Standard world model with limited resource base.
2. Standard world model with doubled resource base.
3. Standard world model with doubled resource base + increased agricultural productivity.
4. Standard world model with doubled resource base + increased agricultural productivity + pollution control.
5. Standard world model with doubled resource base + increased agricultural productivity + pollution control + birth control.

Model 1 is more or less as it is now. Model 2 is a better world – say some new resource is discovered following a new technological development – resource exhaustion is delayed. The subsequent models just present better scenarios in their increasing order but all of them have a common characteristic – they're only delaying the inevitable because population growth rate only increases in a better world. Population will nullify new achievements.

There are other threats which accompany growth like global warming, pollution, poverty and hunger due to excessive population etc. All in all, it is a scary prospect. The future doesnt look too good. We might be proud of our technological development but something in my mind tells me it just wont be enough. But some critics think it will be. They say, if the earth is exhausted, we can move to the other planets and start exploiting resources there… but I dont see farmers harvesting paddy on Mars.